Water scarcity, exacerbated by climate change, could hinder economic growth, spur migration, and spark conflict, the World Bank warned on May 3. A new report finds that water will become scarce in world regions where it is currently plentiful - such as Central Africa and East Asia - and scarcity will further worsen in regions where water is already in short supply - such as the Middle East and the Sahel in Africa. The World Bank projects that these regions could see their growth rates decline by as much as 6 percent of GDP by the mid of the century due to water related impacts on agriculture, health, and incomes. This figure represents a median across the various climate scenarios considered under business-as-usual water management. The effects could therefore be even more severe in the drier parts of the world which are also home to the world’s poorest while Western Europe could be largely spared. Due to the effects of growing populations and expanding cities, the demand for water will rise exponentially, while supply becomes more uncertain. The report warns that reduced freshwater availability and competition from other uses, such as energy and agriculture, could reduce water availability in cities by as much as two thirds by 2050 compared to 2015 levels. The agricultural sector already consumes over 70 percent of the available freshwater but over the next few decades, these already high water requirements are set to increase. The authors argue that the impacts of water scarcity and mismanagement will be felt disproportionately by the poor. Nearly 78 percent of the world’s poor, approximately 800 million people, live in rural areas and rely on agriculture, livestock, or aquaculture to sustain themselves and their families. They are more likely to rely on rain-fed agriculture and live on the most marginal lands which are more prone to floods, and are most at risk from contaminated water and inadequate sanitation. With climate change expected to have dramatic effects on rainfall variability in many regions, farmers might be hit harder than perhaps any other group. Under high emissions scenarios, changes in rainfall patterns are projected to negatively affect crop yields globally, reducing them by up to 10 percent by 2030, and up to nearly 35 percent by 2080. According to the report, ensuring a sufficient and constant supply of water will be essential to achieving global poverty alleviation goals. Water insecurity could also multiply the risk of conflict, the report adds. Food price spikes caused by droughts can inflame latent conflicts and drive migration. “If countries do not take action to better manage water resources, our analysis shows that some regions with large populations could be living with long periods of negative economic growth,” said World Bank President Jim Yong Kim. “But countries can enact policies now that will help them manage water sustainably for the years ahead.” When governments respond to water shortages by boosting efficiency and allocating even 25% of water to more highly-valued uses, such as more efficient agricultural practices, losses decline dramatically and for some regions may even vanish. Possible measures includes better planning for water resource allocation, adoption of incentives to increase water efficiency, and investments in infrastructure for more secure water supplies and availability. (ab)