New studies suggest one in six animal and plant species on the planet could face extinction if nothing is done to mitigate climate change. A study published Thursday, in the journal “Science” found that, extinction risks will accelerate with rising temperatures. Dr Mark Urban, an ecologist at the University of Connecticut, performed a meta-analysis of 131 published scientific studies on the risk of extinction from climate change. He found that extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia and New Zealand. These regions harbour many species that have adapted to live in habitats not found elsewhere. North America and Europe were characterised by the lowest risks. The majority of studies Dr Urban analysed were from Europe and North America, whereas only four studies focused on Asia. This means that poorly studied regions might face even higher risks but more research is needed for better insights. Endemic species with smaller ranges are predicted to face greater extinction risks, while risks do not vary significantly by taxonomic group. “Many species will be able to shift their ranges and keep up with climate change whereas others will not, either because their habitat has disappeared or because they can’t reach their habitat anymore,” Dr Urban explained. He evaluated how extinction risk varied depending on future global temperature increases, taxonomic groups, geographic regions, as well as on the different models and assumptions. Current predictions about extinction risks range from 0 to 54%. Overall, Urban found that 7.9% of species were predicted to become extinct from climate change. However, the rate of biodiversity loss is likely to accelerate with rising global temperatures. If future temperatures rise by 2 degrees compared with pre-industrial times, which most experts believe is no longer achievable, global extinction risk will rise from 2.8% at present to 5.2% in the future. With an increase of 3°C, 8.5% of species would become extinct. But under the scenario where global warming continues on its current path and temperatures rise by 4 degrees, 16% of species face extinction. “If the world does not come together and control greenhouse gas emissions and we allow the Earth to warm considerably we will face a potential loss of one in six species,” said Dr Urban. Commenting on the research, Prof John J Wiens of the University of Arizona, said the global extinction risk might be even higher than 16%, as the majority of studies analysed were from Europe and North America, where extinction risks are lower. (ab)