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11.07.2014 |

OECD/FAO: Livestock and biofuels to grow faster than crop production

Wheat
Bright outlook for cereal prices? (Photo: madlyinlovewithlife)

Global demand for agricultural products will increase steadily over the next decade although at a slower pace than in the past ten years, the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said on Friday in a joint report. Cereals will remain central but diets will become richer in protein, fats and sugar in many regions of the world due to rising incomes and urbanisation. According to the Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023, livestock and biofuel output will grow at higher rates than crop production. Over the next decade, global meat consumption is expected to increase by 1.6% per year, resulting in more than 58 million tonnes of additional meat being consumed by 2023. Poultry will overtake pork as the most popular meat product. FAO and OECD estimate that around 160 million tonnes of additional feed will be needed by 2023. This will boost demand for coarse grains and oilseeds with production increasing by 20% and 26% respectively over the next decade. Global biofuel production is expected to increase by more than 50% trough the next decade, a slowdown compared to the previous 10 years when production more than doubled. Ethanol and biodiesel outputs are expected to reach 158 billion litres and 40 billion litres respectively by 2023. The FAO and OECD expect that prices of major crops will continue to decline over the next two years in response to bumper crops in 2013/14 before stabilising at levels above the pre-2008 period, but clearly below historical highs. This year’s outlook has a special focus on India, the country with the largest number of food insecure people. While Indians will remain largely vegetarian, diets will diversify and the consumption of milk and other dairy products will increase.

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