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07.05.2014 |

New Study Identifies Climate Change Hotspots in Africa

Mais
Climate change will affect crop yields (Photo: CIMMYT/flickr)

A new study from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) identifies distinct regions of Africa which will be most affected by overlapping impacts of climate change such as drought, floods, declining crop yields or ecosystem damages. The German scientists reported their findings in the journal Global Change Biology. The three regions expected to be climate change hotspots in a couple of decades are parts of Sudan and Ethiopia; the countries surrounding Lake Victoria in central Africa; and the southeast of the continent, especially parts of South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe. They are projected to see more severe dry seasons and reduced plant growth, as well as floodings near Lake Victoria. In these regions, there will be a high likelihood of severe climate change impacts by 2100, affecting countries with high population density and poverty rates. “We tried to identify the places where climate change really hurts most,” lead-author Christoph Müller said in a press statement. The good news is, according to the study, that large countries like Nigeria and the tropical forests of the Congo region will probably be less affected. The researchers said the study focuses on multiple stress points while most research adresses only one aspect of climate change at a time. Farmers and pastoralists need to develop coping strategies to confront likely impacts, such as more intensive droughts in the southern Sahel. The authors believe that based on likelihoods decisions on suitable adaptation measures can be made. These could include insurance systems to balance increased variability in crop yields from one year to another, or water storage systems such as underground cisterns.

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